There is much talk of what China will do in the near future about Taiwan. Kevin Rudd – a noted China specialist – gives the issue five years. The Japanese Prime Minister, the US Chief of Naval Operations, the US Secretary of State all agree: China could undertake operations to seize Taiwan as early as 2027. No, they won’t. This is an open letter to Xi Jinping:

“Dear Mr. President Xi.

You frequently talk about your ‘right’ to annex Taiwan, indeed China’s need to do so in view of the ’fact’ that an annexation of Taiwan is a ‘re-unification’. You also talk about that you deem it a necessity to potentially use force to achieve this goal. But this is not going to happen. You will not annex Taiwan by force; not soon and not later.

Because you know the Western world would retaliate, the outcome would be the Third World War; the cost would be millions of lives and trillions of dollars. That is too expensive … you know that.

It is time for you to stop the harsh language, to take the issue off the agenda and let it slip away. Here is a reality check: The One China maxim only makes sense if it refers to Communist China, led by you and the CCP; in reference to Taiwan there is no One China. If Taiwan is in the mix, there are two Chinas.

The reality is: In the early 20th century there was the alliance between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). But it had broken down and a civil war ensued in 1949, resulting in the division of Chinese territory. The CCP established the People’s Republic of China on the mainland while the Kuomintang-led ROC retreated to the island of Taiwan. Two Chinas.

In fact, while there is a common history, there never was a People’s Republic of China that included Taiwan … it is time to acknowledge that. The One China policy is a furphy (= Australian for an erroneous or improbable story claimed to be factual furphies are heard from supposedly reputable sources and widely believed, until discounted). Indeed, there is nothing to ‘re-unite’.

The problem the world has now is that most developed countries, including China, Japan, the US, UK, France, Germany have resigned themselves – in view of the unacceptable and unlawful war inflicted on Ukraine by the terrorist Russia – to increase their ‘defense’ spending exponentially.

One has to ask, in whose interest is this, at a time when huge amounts of resources must be directed toward climate change? It is not in the people’s interest. Entire nations are drowning, burning and blown apart due to the changed climatic conditions on our planet. The cost of these calamities will be millions of lives lost, unless the world unites and spends the necessary, enormous amounts on addressing climate change.

Mr. President, it is clear WWIII would incur obscene costs. It is also clear with annexing Taiwan China would start that war and would be decried as a ‘terrorist nation’ for years, for generations. This must be avoided; it is up to you to do so.

Your rhetoric must change. Taiwan is not part of China. Taiwan is populated by Chinese people, but they are democratic; the people of China are communist. It is not likely the Taiwanese would agree to being conquered and forced into communism. The Western world would stand by them; as they stand by Ukraine, who would rather go under than being subjugated by Russia.

That is the reality. There will not be a Third World War over Taiwan. You are not going to risk it. But the aggressive rhetoric by yourself, your foreign minister Wang Yi and your ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has to stop now. No more threatening military action over Taiwan. Does the world need the divisive, dangerous posturing? No. Do we need another world war? No.

The trillions of dollars WWIII would cost need to be funnelled into climate change amelioration.

Contain the emotions, Mr. President; get real about China and the world … you know what to do.”